Hello. Welcome to Irish passport. Let’s do it. Welcome to the Irish passport. I’m Tim McInerney. I’m Naomi O’Leary. We’re friends. Cé he bhfuil tú Naomi? Go hana mhaith ar fad, Tim. This is your passport to Irish culture history and politics. I’m recording. 1 2 3. OK.
Boris Johnson: My friends. Good morning everybody. Well we do it. We do it. We pull it off and we. We pulled it off we broke the deadlock and with this mandate and this majority we will at last be able to do what?
Crowd: Get Brexit done!
Boris Johnson: You’ve been paying attention.
Tim Mc Inerney: Hi everyone and welcome to the Irish passport podcast. We’re recording on Friday the 13th of December which has been an unlucky day for lots of people in the UK and Ireland.
Naomi O’Leary: And I guess lucky for some others. The final results of the UK election have come in and it’s been a dramatic outcome with a large conservative majority that perhaps even the most optimistic Tory supporters might even have been hoping for.
Tim McInerney: In this episode we’re going to discuss what the results might mean for Ireland for Brexit and for the future of the Union itself.
Naomi O’Leary: We’ll be speaking to unionist commentator Sarah Creighton as we analyse the picture up North
Sarah Creighton: All across Northern Ireland we all have a very common enemy in Boris Johnson now. Nobody was looking for a massive Tory victory everybody was hoping for a hung parliament. Everybody’s opposed to him at the moment.
Tim Mc Inerney: We’ll also be speaking to analyst Pepijn Bergsen of Chatham House and MEP Mairead McGuinness about what all this means for Brexit and what we can expect in the negotiations over the next 12 months.
Naomi O’Leary: What would you give us the odds of this agreement actually being concluded by the end of 2020.
Pepijn Bergsen: [Laughs] Those are incredibly low. Even if the UK would be willing to sign up to almost everything that the EU put in front of them which I highly doubt it would be very difficult to complete a complex trade agreement within basically a year’s time.
Tim Mc Inerney: So now I mean this election was essentially a gamble by the UK prime minister Boris Johnson. Until now the conservatives didn’t have a majority in the UK parliament which had made it difficult to pass legislation including legislation on Brexit. Because of this they relied on the support of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party the infamous DUP and they were vulnerable also to pressure by different factions from within their own conservative party. So by calling this election Boris Johnson hoped to get enough seats to push through Brexit and win five more years in power with a majority in parliament that was solid enough to do what he would like.
Naomi O’Leary: And the gamble has paid off. The Conservatives have now won their biggest share of the vote since Maggie Thatcher in 1979 coming in at 45 percent of the vote. And that means the Conservative party now had their biggest majority in parliament since 1987.
Tim Mc Inerney: Yeah it’s pretty extraordinary and those results have huge implications for England. You know it’s totally transformed the traditional political map, breaking the so-called red wall which is a which is a new term for me it sounds very very dramatic but it will also have some really really dramatic ramifications for other parts of the Union.
Naomi O’Leary: These results show a union that’s under strain. So England and Wales have given a big mandate for Boris Johnson on his Brexit deal. But in Northern Ireland and Scotland the results are very different. In the north forr the first time in history more nationalist MPs have been elected than unionist MPs.
Tim Mc Inerney
: OK. So in real terms let’s look at what this means.Naomi O’Leary
: Well first of all it’s a symbolic shift for unionism, it’s an ebbing away of their once firm majority on which the existence of Northern Ireland is based. It’s a sign that the Democratic Unionist Party have made a major strategic error in backing Brexit and doubling down even as it became difficult. And that’s shown by deep upsets in three key constituencies for the DUP.Tim Mc Inerney
: I suppose it also represents you know quite a turnaround in the DUP’s influence in Westminster a year ago the do were kingmakers. You know the future of Brexit and the Tory Party pretty much hinged on them. Because the Conservative Party relied on their votes, they were able to sink Theresa May’s Brexit deal back then and even though Northern Ireland firmly voted remain in that original referendum the DUP doubled down on their support for the Conservatives hoping to secure a version of Brexit that suited them.Naomi O’Leary
: They are now sowing a bitter harvest one might say. The DUP has lost its seats in Belfast s and Belfast north. Their deputy leader Nigel Dodds was unseated by John Finucane of Sinn Féin and that represents an incredibly symbolic change. The DUP has also failed to take the traditionally unionist seat of North Down which was taken in a surprise victory by the cross community and firmly Remain Alliance Party.Tim Mc Inerney
: So the situation in Westminster now is that the Conservatives are basically free to ignore Northern Irish unionists and the DUP once again, things going back to normal for them anyway. They don’t need the DUP’s votes anymore to pass legislation and the DUP therefore have lost their once decisive influence in Westminster.Naomi O’Leary
: And it’s not just Northern Ireland where unionism is having a bad day. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party has won a landslide, taking almost every single Scottish seat including that of the Liberal Democrat Leader Jo Swinson. She was heading a national campaign and the SNP took her seat. SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said this is a mandate for a referendum on an independent Scotland. And she’s expected to quickly ask Boris Johnson to grant one. He’s also expected to say no.Tim Mc Inerney
: Now we’ve touched on this before, the very prospect of a Scottish independence referendum is automatically destabilising for Northern Ireland. A lot of unionism is historical and cultural links with Britain are actually with Scotland and not necessarily with England, and an independent Scotland or even a Scottish majority that wants to be independent, that raises a somewhat existential crisis for Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom.Naomi O’Leary
: So in a moment we’re gonna get a bit deeper into what these results mean. But first of all I think it’s worth remembering it’s quite a big moment for lots of people within the UK and out. Tim, what is your immediate reaction to what’s happened?Tim Mc Inerney
: Well I mean it was it was pretty astounding election. I think my main reaction and the reaction of a lot of people was disappointment that the gimmicks and the slogans actually worked. You know just yesterday or a few days ago I don’t even remember now, things have been coming so hard and fast, Boris Johnson was plowing through a styrofoam brick wall with a pickup truck of some sort that said ‘get Brexit done’. You know this whole campaign was down to those three words ‘get Brexit done’. And even though even though that was so front and foremost everyone more or less admitted that you know it was never going to be anywhere near that that simple. So it’s pretty dark to see that you know this kind of fantasy and empty promise is still fuelling the Brexit project. And the second thing I noticed was on social media that every second tweet that I saw was about a united Ireland. And now of course that is a self-selecting audience on my Twitter feed. But it was still striking you know: calls for the Irish government to start preparing for a border poll, calls for a constitutional assembly to prepare for a united Ireland, and that’s a pretty astounding outcome for a Conservative victory, especially one this big. Remember the full title of that party is the Conservative and Unionist Party. But this devotion to Brexit you know it looks to be the biggest threat to the union for 100 years. Reuters reported this morning that these results were quote ‘a victory for nationalism’. And Mike Nesbitt who is a former leader of the Ulster Unionist Party told the BBC that I quote: ‘the great irony of all this is that for decades unionists have looked over their shoulders and decided that Irish Nationalists were the great threat but actually it’s English nationalism.Mike Nesbitt
: To be clear my position is that Brexit is unionism’s biggest ever own goal. And the outcome may be the end of the United Kingdom. And now hear figures in the DUP saying that, Jeffrey Donaldson tonight saying how are we going to test Boris’s resolve to preserve the United Kingdom, and asking whether Brexit is actually worth it anymore. Well that’s a position I was in in 2016 and I regret the fact that unionists weren’t with me thinking that through. And I also understand the latest Lucid Talk poll says there are more Unionists who are now for Remain than are for Brexit. So those signs are shifting.Tim Mc Inerney
: But what about you Naomi. You’ve been watching all these elections with a journalist’s eye. What do you read into these results?Naomi O’Leary
: Probably the first thing I noticed when the exit poll came out was first of all the huge distance between Conservative and Labour ,and then the second thing I noticed was the SNP forecast to take 55 seats. Now I think their ultimate tally is slightly less than that. But my initial reaction was okay, the union is in trouble. I mean that is just a huge divergence between an entire part of the UK that’s just gone in a different way to the rest of it. So that was one thing that stuck out for me. Speaking about the broader campaign it’s been a bad election for accountability. A lot of politicians made false claims and their advisers made false claims and they felt they could make those claims with impunity, like there was no downside to lying. They weren’t going to lose votes because of it. So there’s only really an upside. That’s very dangerous for democracy. Related to that I witnessed a lot of disillusionment with journalists particularly with the BBC. There’s a kind of hyper focus on the BBC. And sometimes I feel sorry for them. Also they make mistakes and they do things badly sometimes as well. And I don’t really want to get into it. But it is really important to have a trusted media and agreed facts in order for democracies to function. And so that was kind of a worrying trend, that whole thing. The other striking thing about the result is what it says about the nature of the electorate in England and Wales. I remember I’m thinking back to the campaign when Jeremy Corbyn first became Labour leader, there was a big debate about ideas and the more centrist strands of his party opposed him because they said he would alienate the electorate, he was too left wing, and that you know you could only win with a kind of centrist person who appeal to the middle ground. But the Jeremy Corbyn supporters said no. The electorate will support a left wing program it’s in their interests and they just have to be given the chance. Now, they’ve had many years now to make that case and two general elections to make that case. And the way that the electorate has responded is by giving the Conservative Party the biggest mandate that it’s had in a generation. So I think it’s going to be really hard to make that argument in future, that there is a left wing electorate that’s waiting to come out if you just have the right programs and the right leader.Tim Mc Inerney
: Okay right. So the the argument has moved on to a new phase I suppose nationally and early this morning. Naomi you were up bright and early with the birds and you rushed out to get some fresh reactions for the results, I understand.Naomi O’Leary
: Yeah. So first of all let’s hear from Sarah Creighton. She’s a lawyer and a unionist political commentator in Northern Ireland. She told me that this is a bad result for unionism, but oddly enough in an unusual way it puts everyone in Northern Ireland on the same side for once.Sarah Creighton
: The victory for Boris Johnson with him getting such a large majority is bad for unionism because he’s going to push through his deal. He has a large majority, the DUP are no longer kingmakers at Westminster and he doesn’t really need them he doesn’t really need to pay attention to their concerns. All across Northern Ireland we all have a very common enemy in Boris Johnson now. At this moment in time has nobody in Northern Ireland backs his deal. You know the Unionists and the loyalists are furious with him, they call it the Betrayal Act. His act is now going to go through. Sinn Féin and the SDLP they oppose the Tories from an ideological point of view. So they’re not a fan of him, Alliance aren’t a fan of Boris. He is somebody that everybody in Northern Ireland is generally opposed to in different ways. You know you’ll get people that’ll maybe be fond of Boris Johnson in other ways but hate his deal. But in general at the moment everybody’s looking at Boris Johnson and saying: we don’t want this. Nobody was looking for a massive Tory victory. Everybody was hoping for a hung parliament. So that’s that’s what I mean, in that sense you everybody’s opposed to him at the moment.Naomi O’Leary
: The DUP losses in Belfast are deeply symbolic, particularly the Sinn Féin win in North Belfast. First of all because it’s a symbolic place. So this was a first, in a historically important Belfast seat once represented by the famous unionist Edward Carson. And secondly it’s about the people involved. So Nigel Dodds the guy who lost his seat. He is the DUP is deputy leader. He was their leader in Westminster and the man who took his seat is John Finucane.’He’s the son of Pat Finucane who was a solicitor who was murdered in his home at the family dinner table by loyalist gunmen who burst in and killed him in front of his children. It’s one of the most notorious killings of the conflict. There are longstanding accusations that this was another case of collusion with British security forces. But the symbolism of his victory can’t really be understated.Tim Mc Inerney
: OK. So that’s north Belfast. But the extent of the swing in south Belfast was also really important. Clare Hanna of the moderate nationalist SDLP party won an enormous vote. She got more than double the votes won by Emma little Pengelly who is the DLP MP whose seat she has now taken.Naomi O’Leary
: Then when you look at North Down it was assumed that the DUP would take a seat there. It was a traditionally unionist area and the incumbent Lady Sylvia Herman was stepping down there. But when the votes came in, the seat actually went to the anti Brexit and cross community Alliance Party. This was a big breakthrough for them and it’s hard to look at those results and not conclude that the DUP miscalculated on backing Brexit and also refusing to face how divisive it was in Northern Ireland and complicated to enact. It’s worth noting that of course while Northern Ireland voted to Remain to begin with polls now indicate that even among unionists there may no longer be majority support for Brexit that there once was.Sarah Creighton
: There was a poll out recently which said that I think 41 percent of unionists now are in favour of Remain against 37 percent for Leave. There is a sign that some unionists think that remaining in the EU or getting the softest possible Brexit is better for the union.Tim Mc Inerney
: Sarah Creighton also points out that however Sinn Féin did not have a great night either. Aside from their victory in North Belfast, Sinn Féin lost their Foyle seat in Derry to Colum Eastwood of the softer nationalist SDLP party, and he took the seat with a huge margin of victory. The Sinn Féin vote was also down in various constituencies with some voters apparently slipping away to other left wing parties, which could point to frustration with the continued deadlock and the lack of a functioning executive and maybe spell trouble for any future Assembly election.Sarah Creighton
: The two main parties that have been in power here for 10 years really have not had a good night. What that is yet I think will probably take a wee bit of time to unpack that, but while I think this is about Brexit but I also think it’s Northern Ireland’s voters are frustrated with the status quo. The health service in Northern Ireland has all but collapsed and I think that they the voters have shown their frustration at the ballot box.Naomi O’Leary
: So what’s next? In the north, the election was marked by meetings of loyalists who swore to oppose what they called the Betrayal Act, and even talk of the use of violence rather than ordinary political opposition to stop what they see as an impending border coming down the Irish Sea.Tim Mc Inerney
: Yeah and of course symbolically and historically those meetings have huge resonance. You know unionist pacts against outside interference in Northern Ireland whether from Westminster or from Dublin, they have in the past had really significant consequences. So these meetings that were just happening were clearly trying to hark back to those kind of sentiments and those kind of movements.Naomi O’Leary
: Ultimately though the result of this election leaves that minority who are deeply dissatisfied with the deal to that deep extent with even fewer places to turn to express their dissatisfaction.Sarah Creighton
: The deal is unpopular across Northern Ireland but particularly so I might think with loyalists and unionists. I would imagine that that is still going to continue going forward, they’re still going to show their opposition. How they’re going to do that is another matter. I think the hope was that there would be a much stronger unionist showing in terms of the DUP maybe the Ulster Unionists in some cases and that hasn’t happened. So I think there’s going to be a rethink there about how they’re going to show their dissatisfaction with this deal. There’s been talk of violence. You know I’m very uncomfortable talking that up but you know there’s always the potential for that in Northern Ireland but I think there seems to be people within unionism a loyalism that are saying look, we don’t need to go down this road, we shouldn’t go down this road and there’s there’s really people a lot of people trying to encourage any elements within loyalist unionism which I think are definitely the minority to to do this peacefully and if they want to show opposition to do it at the ballot box.Tim Mc Inerney
: Now the loyalists in Northern Ireland say Johnson’s Brexit deal effectively places an economic border between Britain and Northern Ireland. They see it as the conservative sort of carving off Northern Ireland from the union economically. That’s one of the reasons that the DUP went against the deal. So what is the truth and what exactly will Boris’s Brexit plan mean for Northern Ireland and the rest of the island?Naomi O’Leary
: So the deal that Johnson negotiated agrees that Northern Ireland will largely stay in alignment with the EU. And the reason for that is that it avoids the need for any checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic, so that solves the border conundrum and the insistence that would be no hardening of the border which was of course one of Ireland and the EU’s red lines, and one of the holdups over the recent years.Tim Mc Inerney
: OK so this means that there will be no checks on the island of Ireland after all. But of course checks have to be carried out somewhere. So people have been talking about them being imposed when crossing the Irish Sea. That’s kind of opaque. What exactly does that mean?Naomi O’Leary
: So just to break it down really simply when you have different territories that are following different rules, making light bulbs to different regulations, using different kinds of chemicals in food, you have to have checks on goods between them. Instead of having customs posts on the border back roads which you would need if Northern Ireland was following different rules from the Republic, instead the goods will now be checked at ports and airports when they’re moving between the island of Britain and the island of Ireland. That’s a lot easier to implement than border backroads because there are already a lot of checks at ports and airports. It’s not a case of running through a field or something, you already have to do a lot to get through a port or an airport. So it’s kind of natural for them to be there. They are already checks between Britain and Northern Ireland on for example animals because the island of Ireland is already treated as one unit when it comes to animal health.Tim Mc Inerney
: OK. Right so they’re working on some kind of precedent here. But these new alignment rules, they’ll put Northern Ireland in a somewhat of a unique position right?Naomi O’Leary
: It doesn’t necessarily mean that Northern Ireland is going to be following different rules from Britain. That doesn’t have to happen. That’s up to the choice of Britain. So it’s possible that Britain will choose to diverge a lot from the EU if it chooses to follow very different rules, and bring in all sorts of different regulations, maybe cut regulations then it will become more and more different from Northern Ireland and the checks will be greater and greater. But that is a choice.Tim Mc Inerney
: Now during the campaign itself Johnson insisted that there would be no checks between Northern Ireland and the UK but very few people believe him on that. So it’s a case of either he’s misunderstood the deal that he signed or that he’s not telling the truth, which wouldn’t be an unprecedented thing. So let’s hear what MEP Mairead McGuinness has to say she’s first vice president of the EU parliament and she was speaking to Naomi on the move via telephone, so apologies for the sound quality.Mairead McGuinness
: It does require checks between Britain and Northern Ireland, and that is abundantly clear. I suppose when the excitement of the campaign and the victory calm down and when this will be debated in the House of Commons before they vote, these issues was discussed again. But there won’t be any change certainly from the European Union’s perspective. They are very clear on what was agreed with the British prime minister and indeed at his request.Tim Mc Inerney
: So Naomi what can we expect to see more or less as the next step of the whole Brexit saga?Naomi O’Leary
: Okay, so that deal has to go through Parliament now. The one that Boris Johnson negotiated with the EU. Now that he’s got such a big majority, it’s easier to imagine that he’s going to pass it without much problems because he just has enough votes to push it through Parliament without needing to do deals and all that. So there’s probably going to be a series of votes. First of all in the House of Commons probably before Christmas, then in the House of Lords and then once the UK has ratified this deal it will go off to the European Parliament which will also vote on it and have questions but isn’t expected to cause any major holdups. Unless there’s something very unexpected, the UK will leave the EU as currently scheduled which is January 31st, and certainly that’s what it what is expected in EU capitals. As I heard from the Chatham House research fellow Pepijn Bergsen who told me there is widespread relief that the in-fighting in Westminster and the uncertainty over what the UK wanted out of Brexit appears to be over.Pepijn Bergsen
: So far, it’s been almost a slight relief to have an election result that seems to point to the UK finally agreeing on the withdrawal agreement, and on leaving the EU. I think that that will be the main response there is that relief over it finally happening.Tim Mc Inerney
: Is it actually possible for Boris Johnson to get Brexit done for once and for all in January? I mean is there even a modicum of a chance of that happening.Naomi O’Leary
: Well the thing is that it’s a very empty phrase. Once the UK leaves the EU, it actually just moves on to the next stage of the process. There might be a perception that Brexit is done because the issue might recede from the front pages and technically the UK will have left the EU. So there might be a perception that it’s done, but actually there still have to be years and years more negotiations before everything is settled. So what happens after the UK leaves as it goes into a transition period and during that transition period it has to negotiate its future relationship with the EU.Tim Mc Inerney
: I suppose that that means that things are only going to get more complicated from here.Naomi O’Leary
: Yes absolutely. I mean the negotiation of the future relationship is going to be way way more difficult and complicated than what’s been negotiated so far. Maybe there will be less attention paid to it but there is a lot more work to be done. Let’s hear Mairead McGuinness describe what’s ahead.Mairead McGuinness
: When we say trade agreement it sounds very simple but it actually requires dealing with minute details of each sector, of whether there’s gonna be no quotas or paraphrase quotas, all of these complicated things that have to be consistent with WTO and there will be other global players watching, as indeed President Trump has tweeted following the results. So we thought the first phase was difficult but it was only about three issues, and there were complicated: money, citizens and the Irish border question. The next phase is perhaps where we will really have to look at the whites of each other’s eyes and square up on very complicated trade matters which are about the economy, jobs, growth, as well and where both parties will not want to allow themselves to be damaged when the trade agreement is written and signed off on.Naomi O’Leary
: So these future relationship talks are going to be hugely difficult, hugely controversial, and deal with questions like: where can the UK fish, who can fish in UK waters, these are actually very politically delicate questions. Also, what standards will the UK manufacturers and food producers use. Every sector is going to have questions to answer like that. And there’s there’s going to be vested interests lobbying on each side, in the EU in the UK. If there’s divergence, what kind of barriers will there be. How will those things be reconciled. And then there’s you know there’s very complicated questions about non-physical things like insurance rules, services, digital privacy, telecommunications, and also what legal body has the power to arbitrate when there are disputes. So really complicated and difficult stuff. I asked Pepijn Bergsen how likely he thought it would be that this would all be settled by the end of 2020 as Boris Johnson has promised.Pepijn Bergsen
: Even if the UK would be willing to sign up to almost everything that the EU put in front of them which I highly doubt, it would be very difficult to complete a complex trade agreement within basically a year’s time. I think this will go on for a few more years.Tim Mc Inerney
: OK. So despite what is possible or impossible despite what’s promised and not carried through, at the end of the day Johnson has such a large majority in parliament that I suppose he can do whatever he likes and that would include asking for a time extension from the EU which I’m guessing they will be happy to give.Naomi O’Leary
: Yeah I think they’ve already said they’ll be happy to give it because they see that it’s impossible that it will all be done within a year. And you know just to zoom out a little bit from the detail, the big question that’s being asked here is what kind of a country the UK is going to be. So in the talks that are coming the EU keeps using this phrase ‘level playing field level playing field’. It’s kind of a code for something they fear which is the UK slashing regulations cutting environmental protections tearing up employment rights and basically becoming a way more libertarian kind of capitalist state that would essentially be much more freewheeling and allow businesses to cut more corners make stuff cheaper and ultimately undercut the EU single market from just offshore.Tim Mc Inerney
: Wow okay. Right. And I suppose a few people in the conservative party from what we’ve seen might absolutely love that scenario.Naomi O’Leary
: Yeah for sure there’s people in the Conservative Party who would support that. And remember also it’s not just about the trade relationship with the EU it’s also about the UK’s global trade relationships and where in particular we’re likely to hear a lot more about a trade deal with the United States. So currently as a member of the EU the UK has the same trade terms with the US as all the EU countries because they negotiate as a bloc and now it’s changing. It has to set up a new trade relationship with the US and with all of its other trading partners as well.Tim Mc Inerney
: Okay. All right. So that’s why the US President Donald Trump has been talking a lot about striking a deal with the UK. I suppose he does like to use trade talks with countries for political capital you know as part of a kind of deal maker Dragon’s Den image.Naomi O’Leary
: Yeah exactly. And the U.S. trade deal is probably going to be quite contentious. In the U.K. there are big fears about allowing in lower regulation U.S. food for example like the famous chlorinated chicken and another highly sensitive issue is the National Health Service. This has been kind of tied up with discussion about the future relations with the US because the Left in Britain is concerned that the US will seek an agreement to private ties parts of the NHS as part of any trade deal. Usually in trade talks, the different countries make different demands trying to represent their own industrial interests. And there’s a perception that the US will want to gain access to bits of the UK economy so that its companies can move in there. That was an accusation that was made by Jeremy Corbyn during his campaign and it’s a very hot button one because of how sensitive the NHS is as a topic. But you know the question remains after such a huge and crushing defeat, will all of those leftwing activists who have been talking about this have the energy to keep fighting? You know every detail of these trade talks all along the way as they go for years and to try and stop Britain becoming a kind of Singapore on Thames? We’ll have to see.Tim Mc Inerney
: Right. And we’ll have to see if we have the energy to come back and do another Brexit update in a few weeks’ time. Well what a dramatic 24 hours one of many dramatic 24 hours over the last few years. But that’s all for this edition of The Irish Passport podcast. Until next time. Thanks so much for listening as always.Tim Mc Inerney
: Thank you in particular to Mairead McGuiness, Sarah Creighton and Pepijn Bergson for speaking to us, and thanks to all our listeners. Do share this episode on social media if you liked it and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast.Naomi O’Leary
: Thanks as ever to our Season Three sponsor Biddy Murphy and to all our supporters on Patreon. If you want to check out our archive of extra content and get whole new bonus episodes from us you can become a patron of the podcast over on Patreon.com/theirishpassport. Slán for now.Tim Mc Inerney
: Slán everyone.